19. 2. 2026: Guest talk by Su Yu-Sung „Strategic Communication between Beijing and Taipei: Brinkmanship Without Dialogue“

We cordially invite you to a guest talk and discussion with Professor Su Yu-Sung of Tsinghua University in Beijing, organised by the Jan Masaryk Centre for International Studies, in cooperation with the Department of International and Diplomatic Studies and the Center for Asian Studies (CAS), at the Faculty of International Relations, Prague University of Economics and Business. The event is also co-organised by the Department of Asian Studies, Palacký University Olomouc; funded through the Global Taiwan Chair project.

The event will take place on Thursday, February 19th (13:30-15:00), at the Faculty of International Relations, room No. 244 NB. 

Please REGISTER HERE.

This talk examines the current cross–Strait tension through a game-theoretic lens. Since the DPP administration under Tsai Ing-wen took power, official dialogue between China and Taiwan has largely ceased, driven by Beijing’s insistence on the “1992 Consensus” and Taipei’s refusal to endorse it. What has emerged is a strategic standoff characterised by harsh rhetoric, military signalling from China, and Taiwan’s continued emphasis on de facto independence. This interaction resembles a classic brinkmanship or “chicken game,” where each side seeks to compel the other to yield. However, if misinterpreted, it risks transforming into a prisoner’s dilemma in which mutual escalation leads to conflict. Political language and public statements now function as a critical substitute for formal dialogue, serving as a new channel of strategic communication. Paradoxically, firm and responsive rhetoric from both sides can stabilise expectations and clarify intentions, making this confrontational discourse not merely a sign of danger, but also a new and necessary form of communication.

Yu-Sung Su is a Professor of Political Science at Tsinghua University, where he teaches courses in comparative political development, democratisation, quantitative analysis, political methodology, game theory, and big data analytics for social science. He received his PhD in Political Science from the City University of New York, following prior graduate training at Columbia University. His academic formation reflects a strong interdisciplinary orientation that combines comparative politics with advanced quantitative and statistical methodology. He focuses on Latin American politics, East Asian politics, and Chinese politics in comparative perspective. Professor Su’s articles appeared in journals such as Democratisation, Biometrika, The Annals of Applied Statistics, Journal of Statistical Software, Global Environmental Change, and the Journal of Chinese Political Science. Professor Su is also the author of Propensity Score Matching: From Statistical Correlation to Causal Inference, a widely used methodological monograph that systematically introduces matching methods for applied social science research. Besides, he is a core contributor to several widely used R packages, including arm, mi, and r2jags, which support regression modelling, multiple imputation, and Bayesian analysis via JAGS.

The program may be subject to change without prior notice.